Final Four Predictions!

By: Nick Lee

For the first time in NCAA history all four #1 Seeds have advanced to the Final Four, and only one thing is certain this coming weekend.  Two #1 Seeds will advance to Monday Night’s final and two #1 Seeds will be going home thinking “what if?”  While ESPN Classic gets your hopes up by showing clips of previous NCAA Championship games, Sportsviews.net gives you the low down as we lead up to Championship Monday.

(1)    Memphis versus (1) UCLA

In a matchup of arguably the two best backcourts in College Basketball we will see the explosive offensive backcourt of Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts (CDR) versus the Bruins duo of Darrin Colisson and Russell Westbrook.  Rose has been the catalyst for Memphis and is certainly not playing like a freshman.

KEYS TO THE GAME: 

·         Pace:  Memphis wants to run up and down and force a game in the 80(s) and up.  While it’s quite conceivable for UCLA to get 20-25 from Love and Colisson, with a struggling Shipp UCLA would be hard-pressed to muster enough offense to be in a track-meet.  While UCLA has depth- in a game of this nature you want to shorten your bench and leave your stars on the floor.  UCLA can control pace by pounding the ball inside to Kevin Love and try to get the Memphis big men in foul trouble.  Joey Dorsey is the emotional leader for Memphis and if Love can get him in early foul trouble it takes away from Memphis.  UCLA has a habit of making teams play at a pace that is uncomfortable to them. 

Foul Trouble:  In the last several games we have seen the UCLA guards in foul trouble.  Colisson fouled out versus Western Kentucky for the first time in his High School or College career.  The Bruins will need Colisson and Westbrook on the floor to beat Memphis and this will be a challenge versus Memphis’ larger aggressive guards.  On the flip side if the Bruins can get Memphis big(s) in early foul trouble they can create some problems for the Tigers.

Free-throw shooting:  While UCLA is a little thin in the backcourt; they have a multitude of players in the front-court.  Love, Mata-Real, Mbah a Moute, Aboya, and Keefe.  Other than love, the other four guys are fairly interchangeable and have enough playing experience to be there in crunch time.  This means no free layups for Memphis, put them on the line and make them make free throws with the game on the line.  UCLA will need to get Memphis in foul trouble and this will help down the stretch when Colisson drives and kicks.  Both teams must try to keep the ball in the hands of their guards who are all pretty good free throw shooters but how the teams do in the one-in-one will matter.

       X-Factor:  I think the X-factor this Saturday will be Josh Shipp.  The Bruins will need some offensive contributions from Shipp.  When the Bruins can hit the three it really opens up driving lanes and it also allows them to set up their defense.  Memphis will thrive on long misses and getting out on the fast break.

   PREDICTION: UCLA over Memphis.  No one in College Basketball prepares his team better for a game than Ben Howland.  The Bruins experience will close the gap between the physical advantage that Memphis has. UCLA has a way of making teams play outside of their comfort zone and will pull out a close one to win their 2^nd trip to the Finals in the last three years.

(1)    Kansas versus (1) North Carolina

After 15 years and 4 trips to the Final Four at Kansas, Roy Williams moved down to Tobacco Road where he captured his First NCAA Championship.  The last time he was in the Final Four in 2005 he was the only Coach without an NCAA Championship- now he is the only one with an NCAA Championship amongst his three peers.  In a matchup of two of the most talented teams in the NCAAs, expect an all-out war.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

·         Turnovers:  While North Carolina has really yet to be challenged in their first four games- Ty Lawson has still not returned to his old-self.  Kansas has been a little bit sloppy in a couple of games and  considering that Lawson has only committed 6 turnovers in 4 games, Kansas’ guards cannot give Carolina an edge in this area.   While both teams are very offensively potent- in a game of this magnitude you cannot afford to give your opponents extra possessions.

·         KU(s) Bigs:  While there is no question that Tyler Hansbrough is a force for the Tar Heels, Kansas has some very skilled under-rated big men in Darrel Arthur and Darnell Jackson. I think that Kansas needs to force Hansbrough to play on both ends of the floor, and even attempt to pound it in a bit to try to get Hansbrough in foul trouble.

         The Three Point line:  UNC’s trio of:  Lawson, Ellington, and Danny Green versus Kansas’ trio of: Robinson, Chalmers, and Rush.  I think Rush especially will need to have a big game to give Kansas a chance to win.  Ellington and Green have been lights out and Kansas big three will need to hit threes from the outside. 

         Foul Trouble:  If Kansas can somehow get Hansbrough and Lawson in foul trouble- UNC is not the same team.  On the flip side Kansas is not the same without Chalmers and Rush in the game.  How this game is called—do the officials call it close- or let them play.  Getting teams in the bonus and making free throws down the stretch can be key in a close game.

PREDICTION:  North Carolina over Kansas.  North Carolina has been playing very clean ball and have been hitting their open threes.  Hansbrough has been off to some slow starts but I think that he’ll rise to the occasion.  Carolina is just playing too well right now and should squeak out a close one.

Nick would love to hear from you!  Send him an email at nicksterlee@yahoo.com