NFL
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By: Nick Lee
THE NBA FINALS Boston Celtics (Eastern Conf. Champs) versus L.A. Lakers (Western Conf. Champs) When the playoffs began if someone was to tell you that we would end up with a Lakers and Celtics matchup – it was as expected, after all both teams came in with the #1 seeding in their respective conferences. What has been surprising is how we got to this point. One thing is for certain by the time this series is over between these two historic franchises- they will own 31 of all the 62 NBA Championships. Will Boston increase their all-time Championship total- by putting up banner #17, or will the Lakers close the gap by winning their 15th Championship? One thing is certain – Sportsviews.net has you covered on the in-depth analysis. Overview of Both Teams The Boston Celtics: (12-8): With 66 wins in the regular season no one should be surprised that the Celtics are here in the Finals. However, in the span of a few short weeks- the Celtics seem to have lost a step- although the way they closed out the Detroit series, suggests that they may be returning to mid-season form. Having home-court advantage is huge where the Celtics are 10-1 at home and 2-7 on the road (although they’ve won their last two in Detroit). The Big 3 has been the big 2, for the most part- although once again Ray Allen seems to have re-found his stroke. The Celtics struggled against the Hawks, struggled against the Cavs, and were impressive against the Pistons (although you have to wonder how Billups and Hamilton’s health affected the Pistons). The Pistons blew a 10 point 4th quarter lead- or we could have been looking at a 3rd 7 games series. A concern for the Celtics is their ability to close out games. During this year’s playoffs they’ve had offensive lapses (particularly in the 4th quarter) and it is their defense that will bail them out. The Celtics have yet to face a team as offensively proficient as the Lakers. Particularly having Kobe Bryant in the 4th quarter- will mean that the Celtics cannot win just on defense alone- they will need timely shooting and to make big shots down the stretch. While the Celtics want to devise a game plan that is similar to San Antonio’s blueprint of holding the Lakers to the low 90(s), one reason the Spurs were so effective was that they were able to keep Kobe off the line. Celtic faithful note that they were able to shut down LeBron but LeBron did go to the line 90 times in their series. The Celtics unlike the Spurs do reach in and foul and we will see Kobe going to the line. The Celtics need to play with a sense of urgency mainly because the Lakers are without Bynum and Ariza’s minutes may be limited. Although the Celtics’ big three may potentially be three first ballot Hall-of-famers- they have never played at this stage before; they’ll need all three to be at the top of their game. The Los Angeles Lakers: (12-3): If the Celtics were the best team in the regular season- the Lakers have been the best team in the first 3 rounds of the playoffs. A .800 winning percentage against the best of the West is impressive- including a 4-1 series victory over the defending Champion Spurs. The Lakers have shown that they can win playing multiple styles: running (versus the Nuggets), playing in a physical matchup (versus the Jazz) and playing a slow-down half-court defensive game (like versus the Spurs). The advantage being that they can win playing the Celtics style- but if the Lakers force an up-tempo game- I’m not sure that the Celtics can maintain and run with them. Kobe Bryant seems to pick his spots and has shown himself to the best closer in the game. Possibly the most impressive stat for Kobe in this post-season is the offensive efficiency with which he has been operating—shooting over 50% from the field. During the two regular season meetings Kobe was 15 for 46 from the field (just a tad over 33%) and so the question is can the Celtic “D” cause Kobe to shoot a poor percentage or will Kobe continue to operate at the same efficiency that he did against the Spurs plus a few additional trips to the line? This truly is a defense versus offense series. Before the Gasol trade the Lakers were 5th in the league in offensive efficiency and finished 3rd overall (and 1st Since the Gasol trade), including leading all playoff teams in assists per game. For the Lakers offense to be efficient they will have to move the ball and guys like Fisher, Radmanovich, and Vujacic must hit the open threes. If the Lakers start playing that 1-4 set isolating Kobe (while everyone else stands and watches) that will spell disaster for them. The Matchups (Center): Kendrick Perkins versus Lamar Odom: It was announced during Lakers practice yesterday that Odom would guard Perkins and Gasol would start off on Garnett (hence moving Odom to the Center position). Perkins may be one of the X factors in this series. In the Celtics first win of the season versus the Lakers Kendrick had a monstrous game- and he’s a guy that can put up double-doubles. In a game of possessions 2nd chance opportunities are huge- and in this post-season Kendrick has come up with the hustle plays when the Celtics need it. However, Lamar Odom is playing some of the best basketball of his career since the Gasol trade and he should have a big speed advantage on Perkins and also has the ability to draw him away from the basket. The key for both players is consistency. Lamar is able to offer more in terms of an overall game- and the Lakers need him to play big, and I believe he well. After a terrible game 4 versus San Antonio including some bad free throw shooting (3 for 8)- Lamar came back and played a big game 5 and was (6 for 7) from the line. Lamar seems focused and ready. Advantage: Lakers (Power Forward): Kevin Garnett versus Pau Gasol: K.G. will have a big physical advantage against Pau and you wonder how long the Lakers can go with this one-on-one matchup without getting Pau in foul trouble. Pau will make K.G. work on the defensive end and the key to this matchup is who can be effective and not get into foul trouble. If Pau can get K.G. to fall in love with jumpers and take fall-away shots instead of taking the ball to the rack late in the game- the Lakers will live with that. Gasol’s length can bother K.G. a bit and the Lakers will need to come up with a good scheme to provide help. The Lakers will need to hit the boards and keep the rebounding margin close- they had a couple of bad games against the Jazz- and in a game where possessions are so valuable the Lakers cannot give up second and third opportunities to the Celtics. Advantage: Celtics (Small Forward): Paul Pierce versus Vladimir Radmanovich: Pierce has been the MVP of the Celtics and has been their go to guy in the 4th quarter. Pierce seems to bring his best against the Lakers and he will be a defensive mismatch for the Lakers. A key to this series may be the efficiency of Trevor Ariza. The Lakers will put Kobe on Pierce if they need to but you don’t want to get Kobe in foul trouble- and you need Kobe’s fresh legs for the 4th quarter. Radmanovich seems to be playing the first quarter and then he disappears from Phil’s rotation. Vladimir has been giving the Lakers some big first quarters which have helped the Lakers who seem in these playoffs to finish better than they start. The Lakers will need Vladimir to hit some big shots and stretch out the Boston defense. Advantage: Celtics (Shooting Guard): Ray Allen versus Kobe Bryant: While Ray Allen has been inconsistent for the Celtics these playoffs- he seems to be waking up. A matchup with Kobe Bryant may get his blood-boiling. Off course we know that Allen will be busy on defense. Kobe is playing like a MVP and the Celtics will have to keep him off of the free throw lines. The big stat for Kobe will not be points, but it will be assists. The Lakers would rather get 30 points and 10 assists from Kobe than 45 points and 1 assist from Kobe. Advantage: Lakers (Point Guard): Rajon Rondo versus Derek Fisher: When the Lakers double K.G. the man they will want to leave open is Rondo. Rondo will have to make the open jumpers. This will enable him to use pump-fakes to get to the rack. On the defensive end Rondo has been very effective double teaming. He needs to maintain defensive discipline however, because Fisher will float and Fisher is the all-time leading three point shooter (percentage wise) in the post-season. Fisher will find open spots and is a savvy playoff veteran. Fisher is a big X factor for the Lakers. Advantage: Lakers Bench: Posey, House, Cassell, Brown, Davis, Allen and Powe versus Vujacic, Farmar, Walton, Turiaf, Ariza, Mbenga, and Mihm On paper the Lakers bench is deeper and more productive. The Lakers bench has been able to infuse energy and buy valuable minutes for the Lakers starters- which has enabled the Lakers to be a potent 4th quarter team. Ariza and Vujacic will be important defensively. Turiaf will be important – I have a feeling he will be giving them some minutes on Garnett (especially if any of the Lakers starters get in foul trouble). Posey, Cassell and House are all veterans who give the Celtics some offensive fire-power off the bench. The question really is the consistency of the benches from game to game. We will see if Doc Rivers will shorten his bench and establish a consistent rotation. The Lakers bench because of their youth seem to play a lot better at home than on the road- but the Lakers will need their bench to play big on the road; Boston is not an easy place to win- and the Lakers will have to steal at least one in this series in Boston if they hope to win the series. Advantage: Slight advantage to the Lakers Coaching: Doc Rivers versus Phil Jackson The question really is- is coaching in the finals different from coaching in the regular season? Including pre-season both these teams have played in their respective systems for over 100 games and they know how to execute their game plans. We know that the Lakers are 41-0 in 7 game series when they’ve won game one. In other words- they know how to close out series. This is key- because although the Lakers are 12-3 in the playoffs- they have yet to trail in any series. The same can be said of the Celtics. You wonder if Phil Jackson will shorten his bench and play Kobe bigger minutes. He has historically sat him at the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarters and those are dangerous times for the Lakers- especially if the game is close. It’s hard to argue with a man with 9 championship rings and he has a large edge on Doc in that respect. Doc does have the defensive genius Tom Thibedeau and so the key is who will take chances and make the better in-game adjustments. Advantage: Lakers The Regular Season Matchup: Celtics 2 Lakers 0. There is a sense where the regular season matchup doesn’t mean that much. Last year the Cavaliers won both regular season games versus the Spurs and got swept in the finals. It has been nearly 6 months since the two teams played- and the Lakers are a completely different team with Gasol. Nevertheless the things that the two teams learned about one another can be critical in this series. In the first meeting between the two teams- Kendrick Perkins had a huge game. I think the Celtics will need to figure out ways to get their other role players (Perkins, Rondo, Posey, etc.) involved early and depend on their big three late. The most important things the Celtics could have learned is that containing Pierce will be an important task for the Lakers (who did not have Ariza back when the teams played last). And also Kobe was 15 for 46 in those two games- have the Celtics figured out the riddle of Kobe Bryant- or well Kobe and Phil make the adjustments? Advantage: Slight Advantage Celtics Home-court Advantage: Celtics (Games 1,2,*6,*7) Lakers (Games 3,4,*5) *= if necessary. The beautiful part of this series is that both teams have the ability to win on their opponent’s floor. The Celtics had the best road record in the NBA and although they started the playoffs 0-7 on the road- they have won their last two. The Lakers were tied for the 2nd best road record in the regular season (27-14) and have the best road record in the playoffs at (4-3). The home-court advantage for the Celtics is that the Lakers have yet to play from behind in a series. In order to win this series the Lakers must steal one of the first two games in Boston. If it is 1-1 heading back to L.A. the Celtics may be in trouble. The Lakers can win at least 2 of 3 at home- and being up 3-2 going back to Boston- the Lakers would find a way to close it out. The Lakers tend to usually focus better on the road- and I think if they can head home after two games with the home-court advantage of three in a row at home- this format actually plays to their advantage. Advantage: Lakers Prediction: Lakers in 6 or 7 games. I think the Lakers will get a split in Boston and win at 2 out of 3 at home. Head back to Boston up 3-2. Being one win away from a Championship- the Lakers have shown that killer instinct to close it out.
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